"I've never traded in the stock market. I couldn't imagine how the market works, or how to start playing along it. Is it too complicated for me? Should I just give it up and work harder for my organization instead? Will you advise me?"
Most of my friends who begin seeking financial independence and wanted to start off by stocktrading, would ask me that question. I would then tell them an old story, a story which stretches back thousands of years ago. An old, long lost, forgotten story.
It was a time when humans were not bounded by employment. In that era, gold had already existed, but none seek ultimate wealth. None had the desire of getting rich. Until one day, all these changed when two of the biggest animal tribes of that time engaged in a war. The war then went on for centuries.
These two animals battle in different ways - one by thrusting its opponents up using its two horns, another by tearing its opponents down using its razor-sharp claws. In this war, both animals experienced periods of glory (when they seem like winning) and agony (when the other animal seem like winning). The war was fought everyday, until one side resigns to the other.
Everyday, we (humans) sat aside and watched as these beasts fought bravely against each other, to their blood and death. Being bored of unemployment, we then came up with numerous ways to predict the outcome of the battle. It began as a game to pass time with, but with so many people voicing their opinions, humans seek to find a "winner" among so many voices by putting their wealth into stake. The one who had predicted the outcome correctly, takes the golds. The one that had the most golds by the end of the war, is the "ultimate winner".
At this time, three breeds of players were born. The first breed of players analyzed the biology of the animals, all the way to the type of food they eat, the type of training they underwent, how built was their warring knowledge, the weapon or style of fighting they adopted, and even, who was the commander of the troop fighting that day. These are the Fundamentalists.
Another type of people took records of historical battles that were fought, and then analyzes the probability of the outcome of the next battle using various statistical methodologies. They analyzed the wins, losses, deaths per day, slays per day, number of militia per day, and so on. They also believed that the outcome of a battle was highly determined by the number of supports they received. The more supports they got from the backlines, the more strength they have in fighting. These are the Technicians.
The last breed of players do not perform any specific types of analysis, but stake their golds by listening to what the Fundamentalists and Technicians say. They made decisions on hearsays, analysts recommendations, and some even made themselves acquainted to the animals to get "Insider News". In times of analyzers' indecision, they were the ones who will build speculations around the outcome, and profit from the other undeciding players. These are the Speculators.
Up to this point, I guess my readers would have already figured out that these two animals are none other than the bulls and the bears. Although the war had ceased centurions or even millenia ago, being having nothing left to kill the boredom, humans have made the war go on among themselves. And that, after taking many years of evolutions and reformations, had ultimately created today's stock market.
There are three reasons why I share this story with my readers.
Reason No.1,
We must realise that most of us here nowadays are the bulls and bears who fight each other in the market. If we are working for the companies that participate in the stock market, then we are the 'animals' that have replaced the bulls and bears from centurions ago. Knowing this, do you still want to continue to work for your company indefinitely, or try to get out of the "Rat Race"? Do you want to be the 'animals' or the 'players'? Think again. :-)
Reason No.2,
In the quest of obtaining Financial Literacy and becoming a Sophisticated Investor, we must first know the game that we are playing. The rule of the game is straight forward. It depicts only bull and bear, nothing else! The market goes up, goes down, or goes sideways (when the winner is undecided). It is for us (investors) to place our 'bet'. So, is it complicated? :-)
Reason No.3,
We must determine what type of players we are. Are you a Fundamentalist? Technician? Or a Speculator? This will determine the style we play the game.
Fundamentalists
You will spend most of your time looking through Annual Reports and published media reports, and analyzing reported profits, cash flows, net assets, and other Financial Information that you can find. Other than that, you will also perform certain background checks, and keep abreast of the latest market news to form your investment decisions.
Technicians
You will spend your time looking through charts after charts, studying Technical Indicators to find stocks that would potentially trend upwards or downwards. You will also look at other statistical analysis such as Volume Analysis and also Candlestick Patterns. You will neglect most of the market reports on the belief that all relevant supply and demand information will ultimately be reflected on the chart itself.
Speculators
You possess excellent communication and interpersonal skills, and have excellent Economic Power. You would have a vast number of network hubs to connect you with the experts in the Investment World. You make use of the information you gather from "Insiders" and also Sophisticated Investors to decide on which investments to undertake.
Whichever school you choose, you will have only one ending in mind - becoming a Sophisticated Investor (SI). An SI would make informed investment decisions utilizing a mixture of all three schools listed above. It's just a beginning that we choose to kick start our game with!
I am a Technician. What are you?
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